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Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue rose 20% YoY to $162.5M with gross margin expanding ~250 bps to 17.4%; Adjusted EBITDA increased 75% YoY to $16.1M, and GAAP EPS was $0.08 .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, BTM posted a clear revenue beat (Actual $162.5M vs $153.1M*), while EPS missed (Actual $0.08 vs $0.095*); Adjusted EBITDA outperformed YoY and exceeded consensus EBITDA ($16.1M vs $12.0M*) .
  • Q4 guide: revenue $112–$115M and Adjusted EBITDA “low single-digit millions,” reflecting seasonality, recently enacted state regulations (transaction/fee caps), and tighter company compliance (ID for any amount) .
  • Management highlighted catalysts/risks: kiosk expansion and M&A (National Bitcoin ATM ~500 kiosks), international launches (Australia ~260 kiosks; Hong Kong live), but near-term volumes pressured by new state rules; cash & crypto totaled $72.9M at Q3 end and the company raised $15M in a registered direct offering in October, bolstering liquidity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong operational leverage: Q3 revenue +20% YoY to $162.5M, Adjusted EBITDA +75% YoY to $16.1M; gross profit +40% YoY to $28.2M and margin +250 bps YoY to 17.4% .
    • CEO on operating leverage and demand: “Our third-quarter performance once again demonstrates the operating leverage in our business model, supported by continued kiosk expansion, higher transaction volumes, and disciplined cost management.”
    • Network growth and international expansion: ~9,300 active machines, payback periods <8 months; over 260 kiosks in Australia and operations commenced in Hong Kong; acquisition of National Bitcoin ATM assets adds 500+ kiosks .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Outlook headwinds: Q4 guide to $112–$115M revenue and low single-digit millions of Adjusted EBITDA driven by seasonality, newly enacted state regulations (transaction/fee caps), and tighter internal compliance (ID for any amount) .
    • Regulatory drag broad-based: >15 states have enacted restrictions in 2025; ~6 went into effect in Q3/early Q4, producing the steepest initial drop before partial recovery as enforcement levels the field .
    • Mix of beats/misses vs Street: Revenue and EBITDA above Street, but EPS below (Actual $0.08 vs $0.095*), and sequential declines in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS vs Q2 amid margin normalization and higher non-cash comp .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)135.271 164.226 172.108 162.482
Gross Profit ($M)20.185 31.244 30.864 28.231
Gross Margin (%)14.9% 19.0% 17.9% 17.4%
Net Income ($M)2.299 12.175 12.323 5.487
Diluted EPS ($)(0.05) 0.20 0.16 0.08
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)9.182 20.293 18.512 16.061
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)6.8% 12.4% 10.8% 9.9%

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global Consensus

  • Revenue: Actual $162.5M vs $153.1M* (beat) .
  • EPS: Actual $0.08 vs $0.095* (miss) .
  • EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA Actual $16.1M vs EBITDA consensus $12.0M* (above) .
    Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

  • Active kiosks ~9,300; ~3,800 kiosks installed <1 year; payback periods <8 months .
  • Median transaction size $350, up ~40% YoY .
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and cryptocurrencies: $72.9M at 9/30/25 .
  • Net cash from operations (9M 2025): $33.0M .
  • Debt ~$70.0M at quarter-end (incl. $25M term loan; ~$39M profit share liabilities accounted as debt under GAAP) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ4 2025n/a$112–$115M New
Adjusted EBITDAQ4 2025n/aLow single-digit $M New
Revenue (Prelim vs Final)Q3 2025~“$160M” prelim (10/1) $162.5M actual Above prelim
Adjusted EBITDA (Prelim vs Final)Q3 2025“~+50% YoY vs $9.2M” prelim (implies ~>$13.8M) $16.1M actual Above prelim

Management attributed the Q4 guide to seasonality, new state-level caps, and stricter compliance standards (ID for any amount) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Compliance/ID standardsGovernance simplification; adding BTC to treasury (Q1) ; standard public-co optimization (Q2) Rollout of new compliance standards—ID required for any transaction amount; added elder protections More stringent compliance; near-term volume headwind, long-term differentiation
Regulation impactQ2 guide referenced steady-state optimization >15 states enacted restrictions; ~6 effective Q3/early Q4; biggest driver of Q4 guide downshift Regulatory enforcement widening; near-term volume drop; later recovery as enforcement levels field
Kiosk growth/optimizationContinued expansion; payback strength (Q1/Q2) ~9,300 active machines; 3,800 installed <1 year; payback <8 months; inventory >1,000 for further deployments Continued scaling with optimization runway
International expansionn/a detailed in Q1/Q2 releases~260 kiosks in Australia; Hong Kong launched; pursuing other jurisdictions New international legs to growth
M&An/aAcquired assets of National Bitcoin ATM (~500 kiosks) across 27 states Accelerating scale via M&A
Liquidity/CapitalQ1: BTC treasury additions; cash build . Q2: $59.6M cash & crypto $72.9M cash & crypto at Q3; raised $15M in Oct via registered direct offering Strengthened balance sheet for growth/M&A

Management Commentary

  • “Our third-quarter performance once again demonstrates the operating leverage in our business model, supported by continued kiosk expansion, higher transaction volumes, and disciplined cost management.” — Brandon Mintz, CEO .
  • “We anticipate Q4 revenues to range between $112–$115 million and adjusted EBITDA to be in the low single-digit millions,” citing seasonality, state regulations, and enhanced compliance .
  • “This year, there’s been over 15 states that have enacted some sort of restrictions... about six of those went into effect in Q3 and go into effect early Q4.” — Scott Buchanan (President/COO/PFO) .
  • “We have now deployed over 260 kiosks to support our ongoing launch in Australia... Beyond Australia, we just commenced operations in Hong Kong.” — Brandon Mintz .
  • “Debt... was $70.0 million at quarter end... $25 million term loan, and $39 million... profit sharing liabilities.” — David Gray, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Regulatory headwinds sequencing: Management ranked impacts on Q4 outlook as (1) state regulations (caps), (2) seasonality, (3) internal compliance changes; recovery expected as enforcement compels industry-wide compliance .
  • State-by-state dynamics: >15 states implemented restrictions in 2025; ~6 effective in Q3/early Q4; California enforcement cited as example of leveling the playing field over time .
  • M&A and integration: National Bitcoin ATM asset deal closed; conversion to BTM platform expected to complete by end of Q4, with productivity roughly in line with BTM averages .
  • Network deployment mix (2026 view): Significant new deployments and relocations expected; relocations concentrated in states with recent legislation; continued international expansion .
  • New York BitLicense: Unlikely near term; no Bitcoin ATM operator known to have received a BitLicense .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue beat Street (Actual $162.5M vs $153.1M*), Adjusted EBITDA exceeded consensus EBITDA ($16.1M vs $12.0M*), while EPS missed (Actual $0.08 vs $0.095*) .
  • Q4 2025: Guide $112–$115M revenue brackets consensus ($113.9M* midpoint in-line); “low single-digit millions” Adjusted EBITDA generally consistent with $4.3M* consensus EBITDA .
    Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Solid Q3 operational execution: double-digit YoY growth, margin expansion, and robust Adjusted EBITDA, with revenue and EBITDA ahead of Street, but EPS slightly below .
  • Near-term caution: Q4 guide implies a steep sequential revenue step-down vs Q3 due to seasonality and broadening state-level caps; internal compliance changes also modestly weigh on volumes .
  • Regulatory normalization thesis: Management expects partial volume recovery as enforcement compels competitors to comply, citing California as a template .
  • Scale and diversification: Domestic kiosk expansion (inventory >1,000), M&A (National Bitcoin ATM), and international launches (Australia, Hong Kong) provide multi-pronged growth avenues beyond regulated states .
  • Stronger balance sheet/optionality: $72.9M cash & crypto at Q3 plus $15M raised in October supports accretive M&A and international expansion .
  • KPI momentum: Median ticket up ~40% YoY to $350; payback periods <8 months, underpinning unit economics despite regulatory noise .
  • Watchlist: Enforcement pace across new states, integration of acquired kiosks by year-end, Q4 seasonality impact, and 2026 deployment/relocation mix will shape estimate revisions and narrative trajectory .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global.